Oct. 5, 2022

Fall 2022 San Diego Real Estate Market Update

Following the release of the downtown San Diego condo market's third quarter results sales statistics, two crucial questions have emerged:

1. Sellers - Did you miss the chance to sell when the market was at its peak?

2. Which direction are prices going?


Prices decreased by about 6% on average from the second quarter in the third quarter of 2022. This occurred for the following reasons:

1. Higher mortgage interest rates

2. Were currently in a "recession."

Prices reached their high in May 2022 and have been slowly declining ever since. So, how much longer will the price cuts last and when will they resume rising?

In order to respond, one must consider the market's fundamentals, or how supply and demand are balanced. Only 115 condominiums are now on the market in downtown San Diego, which represents around 1% of the whole condo market. Supply is still quite low. One percent availability is regarded as extremely low inventory, creating what we refer to as a "Sellers Market" in any micro market and at any point in the past.

In a sellers' market, prices typically increase, but over the past five months, prices have fallen. This is due to a somewhat uncommon occurrence called a "Frozen Market." In a frozen market, buyers stop making purchases and sellers don't put their homes on the market.  Markets freeze when consumers are unsure of what to do. In this market, uncertainty can be your ally because it reduces the amount of competition.

So, in response to the first question, yes, selling today will often result in a lower price than if you had sold in March of this year.  In March, you would have received multiple offers which today is practically unheard of.

Answering the second question.  It's never easy to forecast the future, but I believe that by spring, the increase in mortgage rates to 6% will become the new norm. Buyers will stop waiting for mortgage rates to drop to 3% and act to buy rather than continue to rent. Therefore, I predict that by the spring of 2023, the market will thaw and more homes will be bought and sold, bringing back more regular market activity in downtown San Diego.

In conclusion, prices dropped 6% in Q3 vs Q2 2022, prices for the last 12 months are up 17% and for over the past 3 years prices have risen 30%.

I believe that inventory will be low for a number of years, and that by the spring of next year, when buyers return to the market, prices will increase again. I predict that the appreciation rate will reach 10% if mortgage rates fall to 5% or below, whereas if interest rates rise above 7%, the rate of gain will only be a few percent in 2023.

Graph of San Diego Condo Prices

Posted in Real Estate News
July 4, 2022

San Diego Condo Prices Peak in Summer 2022

Prices of Condos in Downtown San Diego have reached a new high through the second quarter of 2022 reaching an average sold price of $815 per square foot.  Condos in the luxury market, defined simply as those over 1,200sf also reached an all time high coming in at $912/SF. 

The market appreciated at a fast pace as there was talk of raising interest rates encouraging buyers to get in before mortgage rates rose, which they did quite a bit in June.  This jump in interest rates from about a 3% 30 year fixed rate mortgage in Q1 to about a 6% rate has slowed the market rate of sales and will slow down the appreciation rate. 

Sellers are now seeing fewer offers in the market place and for the first time in over a year we are staring to see a lot of price reductions on listings as Sellers adjust to the lower demand.  I expect prices to come down 5% in the 3rd quarter of 2022 and not begin to go up again till Spring 2023.

Condo Prices year over year San Diego


Posted in Real Estate News
April 6, 2022

San Diego Condo Prices Jump 12% in Q1 2022

The desire to live in downtown San Diego continues to be very strong as people are relocating here from less desirable cities now that they can work remotely from anywhere.  Also as the baby boomers are retiring a lot of them wish to live in downtown San Diego for its amazing weather and walkable lifestyle.

This strong demand continues even as interest rates have risen from their lows of under 3% to close to 5%.

The supply of condos in downtown has not kept up with the demand as only two condo buildings have been added in the last 13 years.

This imbalance of more demand than supply has pushed the prices of condos in downtown San Diego up 12.3% in the first three months of 2022.  In the last 12 months prices have risen 28.6%. 


Here is a graph of the price trends of condos in downtown San Diego.

If your trying to buy a condo and want to find one before the general public finds out about it and you get into a multiple offer situation please reach out to me as I often hear about some condos being available for purchase before they show up on the internet.


Graph Chart of San Diego Real Estate Prices Downtown San Diego

Posted in Buying a Condo
Jan. 20, 2022

San Diego Condo Prices Hit Record Highs

Condo prices in downtown San Diego hit a new high record in the 4th quarter of 2021 with the average price per square foot reaching $684.  Prices roughly range from $400 - $1,500 per square foot. 

Condo values rose just over 15% in 2021.  Over 1,300 individual condo units were sold in 2021, out of 10,850 condos in the downtown market. 

Current inventory is extremely tight with only about 50 condos currently for sale.  Almost every condo coming on the market receives multiple offers in just a few days, this is happening at both the lower price points and the very high price points. 

Demand is strong because San Diego is such a great city in many ways and a lot of existing residents in both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets are relocating here now they can work remotely as well as a good number of new retirees. 

I expect prices of San Diego condos to rise 10-20% in 2022. 

Appreciation could be limited to 10% if mortgage interest rates rise above 5%.

If interest rates stay below 4% prices should climb as much as 15%.

If interest rates stay below 4% and the Campus at Horton announces a major tech company is going to relocate a few thousand workers from Silicon Valley to downtown San Diego, those employees will surely want to live downtown adding even more demand and push prices upwards of 20% in 2022.

San Diego Condo Price Chart

Posted in Real Estate News
Jan. 13, 2022

Thank You To All My New and Repeat Clients Helping Me Have a Record Year!

Mark Mills Sets Personal Sales Record in 2021 with over $31 Million in Sales Volume in the San Diego Real Estate Market


I want to shout out a big THANK YOU to all my wonderful clients who put trust in me throughout the year to enable me to achieve my personal best production in my 20 years with RE/MAX with $31 Million in Sales.

Approximately $20 million of my sales were from repeat clients and their referrals. As most of you know I am an individual Realtor and do not manage a team of agents which allows me to be personally involved in each and every step of your journey in achieving your dreams and ensuring your success. Best wishes to all in achieving their dreams in 2022!

$16 million was from representing 15 Buyers and $15 million was representing 14 Sellers. 

Posted in Real Estate News
Oct. 28, 2021

RE/MAX Agents Most Trusted per Newsweek Survey

The company you hire to represent you in a real estate sale or purchase matters, the brand your agent works for can help or hurt you.  It matters because of perception both agents and consumers have about the company offering the home for sale or submitting the offer to purchase the home.  This trust can bring more opportunities to the client from both buyers knowing the sale is represented by a trusted company and also helps elevate the competitiveness of your offers compared to offers from lesser known and trusted brokerages.

RE/MAX agents are the most trusted per Newsweek survey

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 20, 2021

Inventory Crisis Hits Downtown San Diego Condo Market

Wow that Went Quickly!

Seems not long ago there were plenty of condos in Downtown San Diego for buyers to choose from.  There were about 250 resales on the market and 200 brand new unsold condos to choose from.  That was a true statement from 2017 till about 2019.  Then the brand new condo inventory began to shrink quickly and went to zero new units available in summer of 2021.

The number of resale choices has remained very steady for the last few years, even during Covid lock-downs it remained steady.  After the brand new condos got sold out in the two new buildings (Pacific Gate and Savina) the buyers were limited to resales and began buying them up.  

Post pandemic lockdowns of both public venues and building amenities the number of buyers looking to purchase a condo in Downtown San Diego has increased significantly.  One of the reasons for that is a lot of workers can work remotely anywhere and as more people retired and an expedited rate with Covid they want to move here for the weather and walkability. 

Add the lack of new construction with an increasing number of buyers chasing less and less inventory and its getting to a crisis level where buyers have very limited choices now in Downtown.  As of Sept 20, 2021 there are only 128 condos for sale.  Inventory has not been this limited in over 15 years. 

If your a buyer I have some good news and some bad news:  

First the bad news:  There are two huge construction projects (The Campus at Horton and The RaDD) going on in downtown San Diego that will add thousands of new jobs and a lot of those new employees will want to buy a condo downtown to live in, so you will have a lot of competition looking at the same condos you are and perhaps also bidding on the same one you want to buy.

New the good news:  Those new employees are not in the market yet, they wont begin working in downtown for another year or so.  So you have time to shop around before the choices of what to buy shrinks even more.  You also have the opportunity to purchase a condo now that will probably be in more demand in the next few years causing its value to climb over the price you pay today. 

Chart of San Diego Condo Inventory for sale

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 14, 2021

San Diego Condo Prices Make Huge Jump in Second Quarter of 2021

Its no surprise to those who live in downtown San Diego that this is one of the best places in the world to live.  I wont go into all those reasons here but now that people can work remotely and more and more baby boomers are retiring, the demand for a condo in downtown San Diego is very strong. 

This is evidence by the shrinking number of available condos, 138 in 92101 as of Sept 14, 2021.  Compare that to about 400 condos to choose from just 1-2 years ago.  Currently there are no new condo projects under construction in downtown San Diego and for the condos that will get built one day, there are no pre-construction sales going on at this time.  The next new condo building will not be ready for move in till the end of 2024 at the earliest. 

If you thought just the natural migration of remote workers and retirees was all that is driving up prices of condos in downtown, your in for a surprise.  There are two HUGE construction projects going on that will add thousands of new jobs San Diego.  Those are the Campus at Horton and the Research and Development District (RADD).  See my earlier blog post for more about those. 

Here is my latest price chart of the average sold prices for condos in Downtown San Diego.

Chart of Condo Prices Downtown San Diego

Posted in Real Estate News
Dec. 10, 2020

Investors are you adding 4% Appreciation on your Rate of Return analysis?

Well the California Association of Realtors just came out with their forecast for housing prices next year and they are projecting a 4.4% increase in prices.  I know a lot of investors ask me how much a place will rent for and then deduct the monthly HOA fees and annual taxes to come up with the rate of return they will get. 

I think most real estate investments make more money in the long term on the price appreciation more than they do off the cash flow.  Often as you build up more equity in the property you can tap into that equity by refinancing and pulling out money to buy another property.  This is a time proven strategy as many of you know. 

Just wanted to share a third party forecast for next years appreciation rate with you.  Its been my experience in looking back on their forecast that they often produce conservative forecast.  In 2019, they forecast a 2.5% appreciation rate and now in early December 2020 it looks like the actual appreciation rate is going to be 11.6%.  They are usually not that far off. 


Posted in Buying a Condo
Oct. 9, 2020

Coming Soon: Research and Development District (RaDD) to Downtown San Diego Waterfront


San Diego Research and Development District (RaDD)

Formally known as the “Manchester Pacific Gateway Project” and the “Broadway Complex”.

In September 2020 we learned that the stalled Manchester Project on the prime Western bay front of downtown San Diego is being taken over by a biotech REIT named IQHQ.  They took over all the project except for the existing Navy headquarters and the building site next to Broadway, which is being kept by the Manchester group. 

To give a little history of the project, previous plans that were approved but stalled out due to the inability to secure construction financing (at least that what I heard).  That plan was comprised of a big office building adjacent to Broadway with a tiny hotel on the top (see picture) that was to be 400 feet tall.

The next building over was a 350 foot tall twin tower hotel.

Next to that is the Navy building that is now completed at 250 feet tall.

To the South of the Navy building was a few smaller office buildings.

There was supposed to be a lot of ground floor retail space in those buildings along the waterfront side.

Here is a picture of the old plans:

Manchester Pacific Gateway Project downtown San Diego image


As of late 2020 those building plans are now very different.

Adjacent to Broadway is now a big hotel, which is what the Manchester group does best.  I have not seen any height published on that building yet, but it appears to be less than the 400 feet of the old building on that site.  Im guessing in the 350 foot range.

All the other buildings are going to be bio tech offices and labs with some retail on the ground floor still.

The first of these buildings on the land where the old twin tower hotel was to go appear to be in the 300 foot height range from the images I’m seeing.  Don’t be fooled when you read the news say a building is only 15 stories or something.  Condo buildings are mostly 10 feet per floor.  Commercial buildings can vary a lot.  For example the Navy building is only 17 stories but its 250 feet tall.  So please don’t think if your on the 18th floor in a near by condo you can look over a 17 story commercial building.  Easy assumption I hear a lot of Realtors incorrectly mention to their clients. 

It appears the building in front of the Navy building and to the South are still very low in comparison to the others.  The Port of San Diego has a general rule along the waterfront that says the tallest buildings are to be up next to Broadway and then slope down from there as you get further from Broadway the lower they get.  You can see that general rule in the design of the buildings on the North side of Broadway (West of Pacific Hwy, which is Port property).  The Intercontinental hotel is taller than the Marriott hotel which is taller than the Whyndham hotels. 

Here is a picture of the plan as of October 2020:

RaDD Research and Development District downtown San Diego - Bio Tech IQHQ

IQHQ Manchester pictures san diego waterfront

RaDD, IQHQ, Manchester Project, Downtown San Diego


Posted in Community News